Was Adobe Summit's Opening Keynote A Narrative Game Changer? Unfortunately No

Paul Greenberg and I have been doing watch parties for opening keynotes at vendor events for a number of years now. Mainly because we feel they are most likely the one event each year that will get the most eyeballs and attention a vendor will have to tell their story.  And while we've each been to a number of Adobe Summit keynotes over the years, for a number of reasons (the beaten up stock price, the resignation of Shantanu Narayen, the ongoing Saas-pocalypse discussion, etc) we viewed this year's keynote as being the most important one in years - possible the last decade or so.

So, as we usually do for big vendor keynotes, we bring together a few of our industry analyst/thought leader buddies to join us in reacting in real time to what they see and hear during the keynote, and discussing our thooghts on what we thought about what we experienced.  And joining us this time was:

• Michael Klein - Retail Expert and Former Adobe executive
• Keith Kirkpatrick - VP and Research Director, The Futurum Group
• Liz Miller - VP and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research, Inc. (And our in-room correspondent... thanks Liz!)

Before things got going we asked the folks to share how important they felt this keynote was in the big scheme of things, and what they were looking to hear from Adobe during it.  Then we watched and commented in real time.  Then after watching the keynote, each of us shared our thoughts on what we heard and saw - to decide if we thought Adobe did what we were hoping it would.

Below I break things into two short clips - the first of what we're were looking for Adobe to cover before the keynote started, the second after the keynote discussing what we saw (or didn't see).  There's also an edited transcript for each video.

Quick Summary

In short, we all had high hopes and expectations for the opening keynote.  We all felt this was set up to be a very consequential moment for Adobe to address the growing uncertainty coming from a number of areas.  We all felt there was a good story that they can tell that could address a growing number of skeptics.  Unortunately, the consensus was also that it ended up being a missed opportunity.  Not from a technology standpoint, but from a an opportunity for them to address the current narrative about where they stand as things move further into the Agentic Era.

To view the entire watch party go here: 

Adobe Summit Opening Keynote Importance and Expectations

Edited Transcript - Importance and Expectations Pre-Keynote:

Brent Leary: Over the next hour or so—I don't know how long this thing is, I hope it’s no more than an hour—how consequential, how important is this Summit keynote compared to others? And then tell us what you want to see.

Michael Klein: I've been on a few of the sessions already today. No surprise, it’s agentic, agentic, agentic. Agent-to-agent. I’m hoping to hear a reality check in that—what is practical, feasible, not just product marketing speak.

Keith Kirkpatrick: We hear about this agentic this and agentic that, but what I want to really hear are stories about, "Hey, you know, as a customer, we were actually able to deliver real financial impact from using this." Because that’s one of the big things that I think is hurting Adobe and really a lot of SaaS companies is they’re investing a lot of money and they’re looking at it and going, "Well, you know, what are we getting out of this? Is this just something that’s going to deliver value in, you know, X number of quarters out, or are we actually going to start to see results now?" I think people are getting a little impatient, they’re wondering whether or not this whole story of all of these agents talking to different agents—is that actually delivering value? So I’m waiting to hear a little bit more about that. What can we expect to see over the next 12 months in terms of a vision, given that, you know, the leadership question is still out there. And there is a big question about what does Shantanu's departure really mean for not only Adobe, but where the market is headed.

Paul Greenberg: The irony of Adobe is that the good AI they have is generative and it’s individual—it’s a B2C kind of level of AI for creators. But they’re at best, at absolute best, middle of the pack when it comes to AI. They’ve got, to their credit, they’ve got a couple of partnerships here and there that are valuable to that. But they’re really not doing much.

Their stock price is a wreck. The company is at a point of real uncertainty at this point, as far as I can see. That said, they still are the Adobe of digital marketing and digital experience and content creation and content supply chain and journey optimization.

Ultimately they’re going to have to prove what they’re going to do with AI. And to both your points, practicality is one thing—you can make all the damn claims you want about agentic. I have yet to see a single word about agentic ever about Adobe. It’ll be interesting to see what happens at the keynote.

Brent Leary: I've said a number of times recently how important I this keynote is for Adobe given what's been going on with them, so I went to Gemini, I went to ChatGPT, and I went to Claude with the same prompt: "Given the sinking stock price, the overall Saaspocalypse framing, and the resignation of Shantanu, how important is the opening keynote for Adobe Summit?"

Let me just run quickly through some of these answers:

Gemini: "The opening keynote for Adobe Summit 2026 isn't just a product showcase; it’s a referendum on the company’s survival in the AI-first era." Verdict: A "Vindicate or Vacate" Moment. "If the keynote doesn’t land with a clear, authoritative vision for how Adobe wins in the 'agentic' era, the downward pressure on the stock will likely intensify, and the board may feel forced to look for an 'outsider' CEO (like an AWS or Google Cloud executive) to replace Narayen, rather than a 'product-first' internal hire."

Claude: "This is a genuinely fascinating question, and the timing couldn't be more loaded—the keynote is happening 'today.' Here’s why it’s arguably one of the most consequential in Adobe’s recent history: The stakes are exceptionally high. Adobe’s stock has been crushed in the 'Saaspocalypse' sell-off, down roughly 25% year-to-date, with investors deeply skeptical about whether the company can thrive in the AI era. The stock is more than 60% off its record peak from 2021, having dropped more than 20% in each of the past two years. That’s not just a bad stretch—it’s a narrative crisis."
"Investors are deeply skeptical about whether the company can thrive in the AI era. It's a narrative crisis."

"The existential framing is real, not just hype. The 'Saaspocalypse' concern isn't just vibes—the core fear is that agentic AI could undermine per-seat software pricing, which is precisely the model Narayen built."

ChatGPT: "Short answer: this year, the Adobe Summit keynote isn't just important—it’s existentially important for narrative control."
Adobe is caught in the broader SaaS repricing driven by AI. Investors fear AI-native tools undermining subscription models. So the keynote isn't just product marketing—it’s a defense of the SaaS model in an AI world. Proof Adobe can monetize AI, not just demo it. Miss that, and the "Saaspocalypse" framing sticks. Adobe has lost that narrative in the AI agentic era, so they need to find a way to put it back into play during this keynote. A defense of the SaaS model in an AI world—they have to kind of present that in the keynote. They miss that, and the "Saaspocalypse" framing sticks.

Summary

Well it looks like we were all in agreement (including the LLMs) that this was a very consequential opportunity for Adobe to use this keynote to address a narritive that has been gaining traction in terms of questioning Adobe's position in the Agentic-first world.  

So did the keynote meet the moment and change the growing narrative questioning Adobe's current and future positioning?   This clip shares some of our initial impressions after sitting through the 2+ hour long keynote. 

Adobe Summit Opening Keynote - Did it meet the moment?

Edited Transcript: Adobe Summit Opening Keynote First Impressions

Brent Leary: All right, folks. We’re going to say goodbye so we could get our final thoughts in. So let me take care of this and let’s—All right, two hours, man. Almost just short of two hours and they’re still going. Michael.

Michael Klein: I had left the end of '22. I just didn't see anything new and didn't have a lot of excitement or new questions answered in terms of what the future looks like. The disconnect of who’s up there. What the run of show is.

When is there ever going to be a true what we used to call "One Adobe"? And being an end-to-end, from Creative Cloud all the way to the end of the experience, because they’re still thinking in these silos. If you want me to "eat from the elephant", then, you need to show me how that’s going to work from beginning to end, and it still seems very fragmented.

Brent Leary: I want to pop up what Liz said here and read it:

Liz Miller: "Final thought: the actual products and announcements are actually hot. Brand intelligence and the agents are where this needs to head. Love the updates. This Summit felt off and didn't bring that strength of vision to life."

Paul Greenberg: Fair enough.

Brent Leary:  I think we can agree—I could agree to all of what she said. But Keith, what do you say?

Keith Kirkpatrick: I’ve been saying it the whole time here. I felt like they have a lot of missed opportunities, particularly around how is Adobe differentiating themselves. I mean, talk about brand safety, talk about the fact that Adobe has this wealth of knowledge, experience—they weren't leaning into that. How does everything fit together? That’s a missed opportunity to tell that story, because that’s something that their competitors, I feel like, are going to exploit by them not addressing this. To me, it still sounds like it’s less of a platform story, even though they have it, but they’re not telling it in an appropriate way. I think Adobe are doing the right things, they’re just not telling the story the right way. And maybe it’s because Shantanu is on the way out, maybe they just weren't able to come together to do that.

Paul Greenberg: I did find that at least the mention of Adobe Enterprise important. Beyond that, if this was one of their more—literally one of their more important keynotes, they did nothing whatsoever to allay a fear, indicate a direction forward of any consequence. They treated it like it was just any other year, any other time. And honestly, as I said, they were middle of the pack in the AI at best, and they didn't do anything to show me they’re moving any further with it at all. Basically, they did anything they needed to do to provide table stakes. And that’s great. Now, that said, it’s good that they’re providing table stakes, because you have to. Beyond that, I saw nothing that gave me a whole lot of confidence that they’re going to become a leader of any kind, really, in this whole thing. They’ll still, you know, do well, but not at the level they really should be.

Brent Leary: I think it was ChatGPT, of all things, made a note that said, "You know what? As big as earnings and conference—earnings calls are, those are backward-looking. This keynote was an opportunity to provide a vision, a forward-looking vision, and to create a narrative that can be kind of looked forward and checked to see how things are going."

And as great as the technology seems to be, that story, that narrative, was completely missing in this one. I think they did themselves a bit of a disservice by not really taking full advantage of this time. They really had a big opportunity—they had Jensen on there, they had this great tech—and that two hours, it didn't hit the mark.

Paul Greenberg:  54 minutes in, we finally see Adobe Enterprise...

Brent Leary: And that customer looked like— he was the right kind of customer, because he looked passionate about what they were doing. But I mean, it was hard to concentrate when you’re two hours in, you know? It’s too long. And then we left and there was still another customer. I mean, they’re rolling out the customers two hours into an event.

Keith Kirkpatrick: Liz’s comment right here: "Bye all... still here in keynote. Send snacks!!!!"

Brent Leary: "Send help" is more like it.

Paul Greenberg: We'll send in the extraction team.